Predictions

2005 F1 predictions ( made 02-25-05)
Drivers Championship
1. Kimi Raikonen - McLaren
2. Juan Pablo Montoya - McLaren
3. Fernando Alonso - Renault
4. Michael Schumacher - Ferrari
5. Giancarlo Fisichella - Renault
6. Jarno Trulli - Toyota
7. Mark Webber - Williams
8. Rubens Barrichello - Ferrari
9. Nick Heidfeld - Williams
10. Ralf Schumacher - Toyota
11. Jenson Button - BAR
12. Takumo Sato - BAR
14. Felipe Massa - Sauber
15. David Coultard - Red Bull
16. Jacques Villeneuve - Sauber
17. Christian Klien - Red Bull
- Crap Shoot -
- Points will only be scored if the other teams fall off the planet -
18. Tiago Monteiro - Jordan
19. Narian Karthikeyan - Jordan
20. Patrick Friesacher - Minardi
21. Christian Albers - Minardi
Constructors Championship
1. McLaren - 1.Michelin development advantage. 2. Two of the best drivers in F1. 3. Mercedes conservative nature works with two race engine rule and so will be served few penalties. Vs. 1. Can JPM keep from knocking Kimi off the road (no team orders at McLaren)
2. Renault - 1. Michelin. 2. First to master the new areo package (4th race). 3. Transmission / Launch control (will still be fastest off the line). Vs. 1. 72deg. V-angle isn’t fully developed and will serve a few penalties (which are balanced by Launch control).
3. Ferrari - 1. Michael is still the best and will pull a victory or two in the F2004M and a podium or two with the F2005. Vs. 1. Bridgestone’s lack of test data (Ferrair and Sauber will not be enough) but Michael's abilities will serve him well on tyre conservation. 2. The late release of the new car (F2005 @ race 4, after fly a ways) and loss of Rory Burne as Chief Designer will cause shake down problems and a possible return of last years car (F2004M) a-la 2003, never the less they will play catch up for the rest of the season. 3. Rubens might touch the podium in the first three races but will stay in the low points when they get back to Europe. ***In the wet the Bridgestone’s and Michael will dominate.

- 4, 5, and 6 will be to close to call, but here it is -

4. Toyota - 1. Deepest pockets in the Show. 2. Conservative mind set plays into Toyota’s hand when it comes to the two race weekend engine rule. 3. Jarno Trulli will hit his stride. Vs. 1. Conservative mind set still bites them in the ass as Aero-package goes. 2. Ralf will have a litany of excuses for his under performance compared to his teammate save lack of ability.
5. Williams - Yes, fifth - 1. the one and only, Michelin, which doesn’t matter when you’re in fifth place. Vs. 1. They were the “Walrus”, the name given to last years twin keel and front wing set up that they abandoned so late in the season last year that they start this year with an Aero development deficit. 2. BMW renegotiations calibrates money with performance clause, ouch! (BMW is also looking for customers in 2006, as of 02-22-05 both Sauber and Midland (bought Jordan - name change takes place next year) are rumored). 3. Frank Williams admits they lost Ralf and JPM because of the expense (loss of BMW $) and even though Frank is a master at pulling a rabbit out of his hat two new drivers is always a mistake. Webber has huge potential but even that can’t over come the lack of development. Heidfeld will ripen, but is still to green.
6. BAR - Vs. There can only be cons if I am going to put them in sixth after last years showing. 1. David Richards (the Prodrive CEO, WRC running, BAR turn-a-round genius) is gone. 2. British American Tobacco (BAT) want out ASAP as the tobacco ban comes into play near the end of the season (David Richards would have been a great help with new sponsorship money). 3. Jenson Button is only sitting here and not Williams because he couldn’t get out of his contract (David Richards plays Frank Williams kind of hardball).
***I agree with John Surtees (a Brit, like Button, and the only World Champion on both two and four wheels) that once it was confirmed that Button could not leave (BAR has him exclusively through 2005) he should have been sacked. Button’s only reason to shine is hope for a seat next year and that’s not much in a car that will under perform.
*** BAR disappears after this year. It’s ironic that Button’s out performance of Villenueve (who started BAR), was Jacques demise, is making his return (Sauber), after a two season hiatus, in time to watch the demise of Button and BAR. It will be a real ball buster if Villenueve and Button end up teammates next year on a back marker team.

- Does it really matter -

7. Sauber - 1. Felipe Massa. 2. Jacques Villenueve’s last chance. 3. Still Ferrari’s test team. Vs. 1. Still Ferrari’s test team but on the outs, move to Michelin and possibly BMW power next year.
8. Red Bull - 1. New deep pockets. Vs. 1. New deep pockets means new management structure. 2. New paint can’t polish the turd Jaguar left them.
9. Minardi - Need say no more.
***Okay, I need to say more. Paul Stoddard is still the best at recognizing talent in the rough, either or both his rookies, Christian Albers and Patrick Friesacher, could end up with a seat or test drive next year.
10. Jordan - Vs. 1. Even the new owner, Midland, isn’t willing to put their name on the car. 2. Two rookie drivers.
***If either Tiago Monteiro or Narian Karthikeyan make it to the end of the season I will eat my hat. They won’t for two reasons - 1. Midland move to a Dallara (who don’t need or want any of the EJ chassis’ info.) chassis next year and even if Dallara doesn’t become a sponsor the new management at Midland will want to give their next years drivers as much time in a seat as possible. 2. Midland has deep pockets and can afford to pay drivers, Jordan couldn’t (why they have two pay drivers and were sold). Sorry, Eddie, I will miss you.