Post - Qualifying Europe

Hats off to Heidfeld and Webber, but running light on fuel they lose their advantage after the first stop. The rest of my predictions line up in the pit. McLaren on a one stopper drive off into the distance. Barrichello and Webber won’t be able to hold it together. Hopefully, Alonso will pass Trulli on the track - we know he can hold the best at bay and know his Renault is great off the line but can he make a move and make it stick? Michael’s Ferrari hits its stride around lap 45 but it is only enough for seventh. BAR engines weren’t changed and don’t go the distance, the heat doesn’t help. Replace Liuzzi with Klien, they are interchangeable aren’t they?

European GP Predictions

McLaren will continue their dominance Kimi (1), JPM (2). Renault will pick the right tires, Alonso (3) but Trulli (4) will out drive Fisi (5). William’s Heidfeld (6) will edge Michael (7) who Ralf (8) won’t be able to get around. Webber (9) won’t have to out drive Rubino (10), because Rubens will drive himself off the road. BAR will take the new engine penalty and come from the back of the grid to Button (11) Sato(12). Massa (13) will edge out Coultard’s (14) Red Bull. Klien (15) will avoid Villenueve (16) and the Minardis Albera (17), Friesacher (18) will beat out the Jordans Monteiro (19) and Karthikeyan (20).
If BAR don’t take the new engine penalty they won’t finish.

Montagny is First, from Third Seat

Frenchman Franck Montagny who replaced Dutchman Robert Doornbos in Jordan’s third seat has outpaced Narain Karthikeyan and Tiago Monteiro at the Nurburgring in Fridays second free practice. Montagny hasn’t raced regularly since taking the 2003 Nissan World Series. For the last three years Montagny has been testing for Renault. Flavio Briatore is Montagny’s manager and their contract states that Flavio will find Montagny a seat in 05.
Ask and you shall receive, RE Karthikeyan Can't Handle Pig.

Friday Second Practice - European GP

1. WURZ          McLaren   1m30.623s
2. ZONTA         Toyota    1m30.630s
3. HEIDFELD      Williams  1m31.813s
4. MONTOYA       McLaren   1m31.841s
5. RAIKKONEN     McLaren   1m31.870s
6. WEBBER        Williams  1m32.088s
7. BARRICHELLO   Ferrari   1m32.143s
8. ALONSO        Renault   1m32.335s
9. FISICHELLA    Renault   1m32.842s
10. R.SCHUMACHER Toyota    1m33.098s
11. TRULLI       Toyota    1m33.168s
12. KLIEN        Red Bull  1m33.174s
13. M.SCHUMACHER Ferrari   1m33.242s
14. COULTHARD    Red Bull  1m33.430s
15. SATO         BAR       1m33.514s
16. BUTTON       BAR       1m33.753s
17. MONTAGNY     Jordan    1m34.090s
18. MASSA        Sauber    1m34.274s
19. VILLENEUVE   Sauber    1m34.645s
20. MONTEIRO     Jordan    1m34.702s
21. LIUZZI       Red Bull  1m34.842s
22. ALBERS       Minardi   1m35.311s
23. KARTHIKEYAN  Jordan    1m35.791s
24. FRIESACHER   Minardi   1m36.702s

Friday First Practice - European GP

1. WURZ          McLaren   1m31.670s
2. M.SCHUMACHER  Ferrari   1m32.578s
3. ZONTA         Toyota    1m32.726s
3. MONTOYA       McLaren   1m32.873s
5. BARRICHELLO   Ferrari   1m32.984s
6. RAIKKONEN     McLaren   1m32.988s
7. HEIDFELD      Williams  1m33.142s
8. WEBBER        Williams  1m33.248s
9. KLIEN         Red Bull  1m33.304s
10. R.SCHUMACHER Toyota    1m34.018s
11. TRULLI       Toyota    1m34.212s
12. MASSA        Sauber    1m35.142s
13. COULTHARD    Red Bull  1m35.413s
14. VILLENEUVE   Sauber    1m35.716s
15. LIUZZI       Red Bull  1m36.129s
16. MONTEIRO     Jordan    1m37.021s
17. ALBERS       Minardi   1m37.406s
18. KARTHIKEYAN  Jordan    1m37.474s
19. FRIESACHER   Minardi   1m37.538s
20. MONTAGNY     Jordan    1m37.725s
21. SATO         BAR       no time
22. BUTTON       BAR       no time
23. FISICHELLA   Renault   no time
24. ALONSO       Renault   no time

Karthikeyan Can't Handle Pig

As I watched Monaco Qualifying I was amazed that the Jordan could stay inside the Armaco. Watching all the steering input I figured the car was just a pig.

Peter Windsor says there may be more to it. “I was quite impressed with Narain Karthikeyan’s bravery and car control in the semi-wet in Melbourne but ‘disappointing’ is the only word to describe his driving at Monaco. He threw the Jordan around the quick stuff, as you would expect, but he was astonishingly laborious through the more technical corners. He caused instability under braking, was too wide with his turn-ins, too abrupt with his throttle application and made no attempt to kill the ensuing understeer with additional lock against a decreasing brake pedal. I never cease to be amazed by drivers like Narain who seem to go out of their way not to follow the drivers who know what they are doing. At Monaco he only needed to sit behind someone like Kimi or Michael for a corner or two to see how wide of the mark he was with the Jordan. It’s a shame, because he has a lot of natural talent and I’m sure the Jordan-Toyota is a much better car than he made it look. Narain needs to learn how to learn, if you know what I mean.”

I do think that having a driver from India makes Formula 1 more international, but I find it hard to believe that there aren’t more talented and deserving drivers out there.

Racers V. Drivers

Itv.com pole likes Mikes actions
Michael Schumacher’s pass of teammate Rubens Barrichello on the last lap and lunge inside brother Ralf at the finish line at Monaco is considered good racing by approximately 75% of the respondents to the itv.com pole.
Michael's actions highlight the difference between racers and drivers.
Rubino is the only person at Ferrari who thinks he’s a racer. A racer would not take a back seat, even in a Ferrari. When Ferrari starts to look, if they haven’t already, they won’t be looking for another driver.
Ralf, it must be hard being Michael's brother, but when you're the bratty little brother it’s hard on all of us. Would you have attempted that pass on him or anyone else for that matter? Would you have even thought of it? Exactly, drive on bro.

Qualifying Changes

Formula One racing’s governing body, the FIA, has confirmed that Sunday morning qualifying is to be dropped as of this weekend’s European Grand Prix at the Nurburgring in Germany.
Grid positions will now be determined by the Saturday session alone, which will continue in the same single-lap format, but with cars required to qualify in race trim. They will then be kept under parc ferme conditions until the race.
I'm glad the aggregated qualifying is over for no other reason than I am tired of being told I don't understand it.
There is a chance we can get qualifying over a few hot laps back. Also, an outside chance that we could get the pole sitter a championship point. The FIA want your opinion, go to www.fia-amd-survey2005.com.

Monaco Post Race

05 Monaco post race.
Kimi - 3 seconds lead by lap 5 and on a one stop, come on!
JPM - To think that my predictions had you punting Kimi, I thought that since you and Ralf were separated there would be no more bitch boxing.

Williams 2 and 3 - Even a blind squirrel finds a nut every now and then.
"It is certainly positive, yes, but we have been with Williams now for more than five years and you shouldn't take a strategic decision on a one-day event," said Mario Theissen (BMW Motorsports boss). Mario knows the score.

Michael - Retire? How hungary can a seven time world champion who has his name on the top of all but two records be? Hungary enough for the fastest race lap (4 seconds faster than his qualifying time) and to drive like a real racer for one point.
Michael - "I didn't think there was much risk involved in the moves," he said. "I am a full-blooded racer, that's why I'm here. "Do they think I came here just for a Sunday afternoon outing?”
Barrichello was incensed enough with Schumacher’s actions to complain to Ferrari boss Jean Todt. "He overtook me in a place where he shouldn't have," the Brazilian said. "He took a gamble for an extra point. But, if I hadn't moved out of the way, we would have crashed and lost the points we earned today. "I don't want to destabilize the team, but I have spoken to Michael and Jean Todt. A few years ago I wouldn't have said anything, and I don't suppose this will now change anything." A little late to grow balls, Rubino.

Ralf Schumacher, who successfully defended his place against Michael, said that the incident could have had a much more tragic outcome. “Michael's crazy," he said. "He should have switched on his brain before he tried that move. One more millimetre and one of us could have been dead. Sometimes Michael is just not right in the head." I’ve said it before and I’ll say it again as Michael’s little sister you should be more supportive.

Sauber lap 63 - you’re a racer if you make it stick and a joke if you stick in the tire barrier. I still love you Jacque but I’m sure Massa and Peter feel differently. Peter Sauber has summoned Jacques Villeneuve and Felipe Massa to explain themselves at his team's headquarters in Hinwil following their collision in the Monaco Grand Prix on Sunday. The pair made contact on lap 63 at Ste Devote, as Villeneuve tried to pass Massa for eighth place while they were bottled up behind Giancarlo Fisichella's fourth-placed Renault.

Rethinking my predictions

Overall, I'll stick to them, but I will make a few comments.
1. I did underestimate the Bridgestone deficit, which effects both my predictions for Michael and the F2004M, sticking with my predictions though I still believe Michael could put the F2005 on a podium or two.
2. I underestimated the passion for racing and Formula 1 Ford's employees have. I called the car a "turd" and couldn't have been more wrong. I will eat my crow with the Ford exec.
3. Behind my JPM comment "if he can keep from knocking Kimi off the road" is the real issue, his emotional out bursts. He had a great come back in Monaco but the brake check in practice was childish and deserved the punishment.
4. As the one man fan club of David Richards I have to say I had BAR's chances wrong but still believe they would be in the hunt if he'd stayed, and Richards would never have "misinterpreted the rules".
And, I'll point out what I had right.
1.McLaren and Renault
2. I nailed Toyota, Jarno and Ralf.
3. Jordan behind Minardi?

Predictions

2005 F1 predictions ( made 02-25-05)
Drivers Championship
1. Kimi Raikonen - McLaren
2. Juan Pablo Montoya - McLaren
3. Fernando Alonso - Renault
4. Michael Schumacher - Ferrari
5. Giancarlo Fisichella - Renault
6. Jarno Trulli - Toyota
7. Mark Webber - Williams
8. Rubens Barrichello - Ferrari
9. Nick Heidfeld - Williams
10. Ralf Schumacher - Toyota
11. Jenson Button - BAR
12. Takumo Sato - BAR
14. Felipe Massa - Sauber
15. David Coultard - Red Bull
16. Jacques Villeneuve - Sauber
17. Christian Klien - Red Bull
- Crap Shoot -
- Points will only be scored if the other teams fall off the planet -
18. Tiago Monteiro - Jordan
19. Narian Karthikeyan - Jordan
20. Patrick Friesacher - Minardi
21. Christian Albers - Minardi
Constructors Championship
1. McLaren - 1.Michelin development advantage. 2. Two of the best drivers in F1. 3. Mercedes conservative nature works with two race engine rule and so will be served few penalties. Vs. 1. Can JPM keep from knocking Kimi off the road (no team orders at McLaren)
2. Renault - 1. Michelin. 2. First to master the new areo package (4th race). 3. Transmission / Launch control (will still be fastest off the line). Vs. 1. 72deg. V-angle isn’t fully developed and will serve a few penalties (which are balanced by Launch control).
3. Ferrari - 1. Michael is still the best and will pull a victory or two in the F2004M and a podium or two with the F2005. Vs. 1. Bridgestone’s lack of test data (Ferrair and Sauber will not be enough) but Michael's abilities will serve him well on tyre conservation. 2. The late release of the new car (F2005 @ race 4, after fly a ways) and loss of Rory Burne as Chief Designer will cause shake down problems and a possible return of last years car (F2004M) a-la 2003, never the less they will play catch up for the rest of the season. 3. Rubens might touch the podium in the first three races but will stay in the low points when they get back to Europe. ***In the wet the Bridgestone’s and Michael will dominate.

- 4, 5, and 6 will be to close to call, but here it is -

4. Toyota - 1. Deepest pockets in the Show. 2. Conservative mind set plays into Toyota’s hand when it comes to the two race weekend engine rule. 3. Jarno Trulli will hit his stride. Vs. 1. Conservative mind set still bites them in the ass as Aero-package goes. 2. Ralf will have a litany of excuses for his under performance compared to his teammate save lack of ability.
5. Williams - Yes, fifth - 1. the one and only, Michelin, which doesn’t matter when you’re in fifth place. Vs. 1. They were the “Walrus”, the name given to last years twin keel and front wing set up that they abandoned so late in the season last year that they start this year with an Aero development deficit. 2. BMW renegotiations calibrates money with performance clause, ouch! (BMW is also looking for customers in 2006, as of 02-22-05 both Sauber and Midland (bought Jordan - name change takes place next year) are rumored). 3. Frank Williams admits they lost Ralf and JPM because of the expense (loss of BMW $) and even though Frank is a master at pulling a rabbit out of his hat two new drivers is always a mistake. Webber has huge potential but even that can’t over come the lack of development. Heidfeld will ripen, but is still to green.
6. BAR - Vs. There can only be cons if I am going to put them in sixth after last years showing. 1. David Richards (the Prodrive CEO, WRC running, BAR turn-a-round genius) is gone. 2. British American Tobacco (BAT) want out ASAP as the tobacco ban comes into play near the end of the season (David Richards would have been a great help with new sponsorship money). 3. Jenson Button is only sitting here and not Williams because he couldn’t get out of his contract (David Richards plays Frank Williams kind of hardball).
***I agree with John Surtees (a Brit, like Button, and the only World Champion on both two and four wheels) that once it was confirmed that Button could not leave (BAR has him exclusively through 2005) he should have been sacked. Button’s only reason to shine is hope for a seat next year and that’s not much in a car that will under perform.
*** BAR disappears after this year. It’s ironic that Button’s out performance of Villenueve (who started BAR), was Jacques demise, is making his return (Sauber), after a two season hiatus, in time to watch the demise of Button and BAR. It will be a real ball buster if Villenueve and Button end up teammates next year on a back marker team.

- Does it really matter -

7. Sauber - 1. Felipe Massa. 2. Jacques Villenueve’s last chance. 3. Still Ferrari’s test team. Vs. 1. Still Ferrari’s test team but on the outs, move to Michelin and possibly BMW power next year.
8. Red Bull - 1. New deep pockets. Vs. 1. New deep pockets means new management structure. 2. New paint can’t polish the turd Jaguar left them.
9. Minardi - Need say no more.
***Okay, I need to say more. Paul Stoddard is still the best at recognizing talent in the rough, either or both his rookies, Christian Albers and Patrick Friesacher, could end up with a seat or test drive next year.
10. Jordan - Vs. 1. Even the new owner, Midland, isn’t willing to put their name on the car. 2. Two rookie drivers.
***If either Tiago Monteiro or Narian Karthikeyan make it to the end of the season I will eat my hat. They won’t for two reasons - 1. Midland move to a Dallara (who don’t need or want any of the EJ chassis’ info.) chassis next year and even if Dallara doesn’t become a sponsor the new management at Midland will want to give their next years drivers as much time in a seat as possible. 2. Midland has deep pockets and can afford to pay drivers, Jordan couldn’t (why they have two pay drivers and were sold). Sorry, Eddie, I will miss you.