At Least...it's not a Lottery

Finishing first gets a driver ten points and second eight points, so with six races left there are only 12 points left in the driver's championship between first and second. A third place finish gets a driver six points that's four short of first, four times six leaves only 24 points between first and third. If you assume that the six remaining races will be won by only the four drivers that have already won races this year (sorry Nick and Robert) and drop the chance of a DNF by any of them, each has a .024 % chance of running the table. On the track .024 is a tight gap. At the bookie’s… let’s just say they’ll take the bet.

What must be done?

The Driver’s Title is Hamilton’s to lose.

Alonso (-7 pts.) must finish at least 2 points ahead of Hamilton in four of the remaining six races. Hamilton could even win a race in the “Alonso Wins His Third Driver’s Title” scenario.

Kimi (-20 pts.) must finish at least 4 points ahead of Hamilton in at least five of the six remaining races and no less than 1 point ahead in the sixth.

Massa must do at least as much as Kimi and finish the sixth race at least two points ahead of Hamilton.

Throw in a DNF, some rain, the first corner at Spa, and some desperation and you’ve got Lotto odds.

Press or Race

Remember when Jackie Stewart asked Senna about the amount of contact Senna has had with other drivers? Remember what Senna said? You can catch an edited version of the interview at youtube.com

Stewart tolds Senna that Senna may have had more contact with other drivers in the last 36 to 48 months than all past driver's champions have had in total.

Senna, “I find it amazing for you to make such a question Stewart because you are very experienced and you know a lot about racing. You should know that by being a race driver you are at the risk all the time and that being a race driver you are racing with other people. And, that if you no longer go for a gap that exists you are no longer a racing driver because we are competing and competing to win… I race to win…and sometimes you get it wrong, sure it is impossible to get it right all the time but I race designed to win.”

Incredulous is what Senna should have been. Stewart asks a press question not a driver’s question. Anyone read the article in F1 Racing on the meeting of John Surtees and Valentino Rossi? That was racers talking about racing. That is what a race fan wants to read. We don’t get much of it. I don’t get anything in the U.S. but what I pull from Britain.

My point is that what we do get is biased and, other than the races themselves, what we get is “press” not “race.” Most of what I read is jingoistic. I understand why the British press prefers the British driver to the Spanish at a British team. I still read and sometimes learn something, though not much about racing.