At Least...it's not a Lottery

Finishing first gets a driver ten points and second eight points, so with six races left there are only 12 points left in the driver's championship between first and second. A third place finish gets a driver six points that's four short of first, four times six leaves only 24 points between first and third. If you assume that the six remaining races will be won by only the four drivers that have already won races this year (sorry Nick and Robert) and drop the chance of a DNF by any of them, each has a .024 % chance of running the table. On the track .024 is a tight gap. At the bookie’s… let’s just say they’ll take the bet.

What must be done?

The Driver’s Title is Hamilton’s to lose.

Alonso (-7 pts.) must finish at least 2 points ahead of Hamilton in four of the remaining six races. Hamilton could even win a race in the “Alonso Wins His Third Driver’s Title” scenario.

Kimi (-20 pts.) must finish at least 4 points ahead of Hamilton in at least five of the six remaining races and no less than 1 point ahead in the sixth.

Massa must do at least as much as Kimi and finish the sixth race at least two points ahead of Hamilton.

Throw in a DNF, some rain, the first corner at Spa, and some desperation and you’ve got Lotto odds.