Fair and Square is Rare

Listed below are a few events that taken individually could be shaded any way, depending on your colors. But, if you look at them together a pattern starts to appear.

- Monza 2005, Alonso is given a 10-place grid penalty after Ferrari made a protest against him for blocking Felipe Massa during qualifying. I thought I understood “blocking” until that day. Alonso says of his penalty, “I no longer consider Formula 1 to be a sport.”

- Monaco 2006, after Schumacher parks his Ferrari at Rascasse bring qualifying to an early and unfavorable end for Alonso, Webber, Kimi and Fisichella, Alonso tells Webber that if Schumacher is not penalized for his actions, “I’m going to pull up on the grid, get out of my car and lie in front of his.”(Schumacher is penalized 10 grip positions.)

- Hungary 2007, Hamilton chooses not to follow the agreed upon “equalizing” and carefully choreographed fuel burn-off phase of the third qualifying session which gives him a lighter car and an advantage over his teammate, Alonso. So, when Alonso sees Hamilton stacked up behind him in the pit during their last tire changes the lollipop is lifted, Alonso sits for an extra 10 seconds and Hamilton is left without enough time for another lap. (Alonso is penalized his last lap times and relegated to 6^th on the grid.)

I see a pattern, a logical, understandable and justifiable pattern. Alonso wants to win, to win on the track in equal cars with equal treatment. I read recently that Hamilton has been benefiting from the “equal” treatment of the drivers at McLaren by being able to use Alonso’s set-up. That, that unwritten rule was not enforced in Monza and resulted in Alonso’s clear advantage over Hamilton.

First, Alonso, I must apologize for my “shut up and drive” comment. And, then reiterate my respect for you by repeating my comments of May 17, 2007, from the post Trick and Flaw, “I believe Alonso is as good a racer as Michael and expect that Alonso is a better man. I, also, hope Alonso wouldn’t want to tie the hands of any of his competition, teammate or otherwise, behind their back.”

Shut Up and Drive

I didn’t believe and still don’t want to believe that Fernando has such difficulty with the success of his teammate. As a racing fan I want to believe that any racer wants the challenge of racer that will up his game. If you win a race because of a mechanical or aero advantage have you or the car won, yes I know the driver has to bring the car home but still, if the advantage were great enough couldn’t any driver do it and if that’s so isn’t the driver really just along for the ride?

So, the real test of a driver’s speed is how it compares to another driver in equal equipment. Look at Nick Heidfeld and the BMW F1.07. As the announcers for Speed Vision mentioned during the Thursday practice in Istanbul, Kubica’s performance has kept Nick from “hiding behind the car”. And, as so Heidfeld has made the podium this year and both Heidfeld and Kudica have helped with the development of the car.

I almost dropped Kimi as my driver of choice (read all race predictions) for Kubica three races into this season. I stayed with him because I figured it was Kimi needing time to get use to a new team, car and tires. You know what, I am glad I stuck. And, am glad I stuck because Kimi didn’t complain, he learned the new team, car and tires and gives it to Lewis regularly. If Kimi thought, he never mentioned, that Massa might be, being giving an advantage from inside Ferrari, and Ferrari haven’t even pretended to treat their drivers equally (Massa no fuel in Hungary, thanks for the jibe DC. I hoped it would throw Massa off his game. It didn’t), until recently.

Is Alonso really bothered by the performance of Hamilton? He is probably as surprised as everyone else, but being as they are on equal equipment, Alonso, if he is a better driver, should be able to prove it on the track. Alonso, you are paid millions of dollars to do, in my opinion, the greatest job it the world, shut up and drive.

At Least...it's not a Lottery

Finishing first gets a driver ten points and second eight points, so with six races left there are only 12 points left in the driver's championship between first and second. A third place finish gets a driver six points that's four short of first, four times six leaves only 24 points between first and third. If you assume that the six remaining races will be won by only the four drivers that have already won races this year (sorry Nick and Robert) and drop the chance of a DNF by any of them, each has a .024 % chance of running the table. On the track .024 is a tight gap. At the bookie’s… let’s just say they’ll take the bet.

What must be done?

The Driver’s Title is Hamilton’s to lose.

Alonso (-7 pts.) must finish at least 2 points ahead of Hamilton in four of the remaining six races. Hamilton could even win a race in the “Alonso Wins His Third Driver’s Title” scenario.

Kimi (-20 pts.) must finish at least 4 points ahead of Hamilton in at least five of the six remaining races and no less than 1 point ahead in the sixth.

Massa must do at least as much as Kimi and finish the sixth race at least two points ahead of Hamilton.

Throw in a DNF, some rain, the first corner at Spa, and some desperation and you’ve got Lotto odds.

Press or Race

Remember when Jackie Stewart asked Senna about the amount of contact Senna has had with other drivers? Remember what Senna said? You can catch an edited version of the interview at youtube.com

Stewart tolds Senna that Senna may have had more contact with other drivers in the last 36 to 48 months than all past driver's champions have had in total.

Senna, “I find it amazing for you to make such a question Stewart because you are very experienced and you know a lot about racing. You should know that by being a race driver you are at the risk all the time and that being a race driver you are racing with other people. And, that if you no longer go for a gap that exists you are no longer a racing driver because we are competing and competing to win… I race to win…and sometimes you get it wrong, sure it is impossible to get it right all the time but I race designed to win.”

Incredulous is what Senna should have been. Stewart asks a press question not a driver’s question. Anyone read the article in F1 Racing on the meeting of John Surtees and Valentino Rossi? That was racers talking about racing. That is what a race fan wants to read. We don’t get much of it. I don’t get anything in the U.S. but what I pull from Britain.

My point is that what we do get is biased and, other than the races themselves, what we get is “press” not “race.” Most of what I read is jingoistic. I understand why the British press prefers the British driver to the Spanish at a British team. I still read and sometimes learn something, though not much about racing.

Shifting More Than Gears

Shifting blame, I hadn't given it much thought lately or maybe just "fell into the rhythm of things". Then I read Peter Windsor’s, The Friction Circle, F1 Racing, May 2007, page 29. So I went into USGP weekend looking for it. I was hoping to find out about the drivers, not so much the PR, but what the drivers say about what happened.

I believe it is a man who can admit he made a mistake and find it hard to believe anyone who can’t.

Below are some quotes from the drivers after the USGP.

Ralf Schumacher - I braked quite calmly but my tyres locked up a bit.

Giancarlo Fisichella - I am just really sorry about the result today. I lost the rear end going into turn four on lap two, and that compromised my whole race.

Fernando Alonso - I think the race was decided after the first corner, and I didn't manage to get past. All I could do was to stay as close to Lewis as possible. We were side-by-side on one occasion, but it was all fair and square and it was good racing.

Nick Heidfeld - I had a good start and overtook Kimi. In the first stint my speed was okay, and it was only in the beginning that Felipe Massa could pull away a little bit. Later when I was braking for turn one the rear wheels just locked and I spun.

Takumo Sato - I had a difficult start to the race and as a result got overtaken by two cars.

Windsor calls it the “if only” syndrome and I agree that it a “syndrome” in one and only one case, Ralf Schumacher. In Windsor’s article he says, “The best I’ve heard in recent times was Ralf Schumacher’s ‘the car spun’, instead of ‘I spun the car’, giving us the impression that the Toyota wouldn’t have left the road ‘if only’ it had been as well-adjusted as its driver”.

I wonder how you get to Formula 1 if things just happen to you, if you don’t make them happen. It’s a little like reading your horoscope and deciding only to believe the good bits. Ralf, Toyota pay you $20 million a year, your problems aren’t under the hood they are in your helmet. If you are in Formula 1 at all next year it should be with an “also ran” and a pay cut. “I braked quite calmly."

Monaco - Re-Pre

After watching the first half of Thursdays first practice session and then reading what transpired in session two, I have decided to revise my predictions.

Alonso (1) goes pole to post. Kimi (DNF) is collected from p-2 by Hamilton p-3 (DNF) who has no room to yield to Massa p-4 (DNF) who, “proving he is not afraid to be aggressive,” thinks he has the corner because he slid his nose under Hamilton in the jog left before hard right of Sainte Devote, turn 1. This incident also collects Trulli (DNF) from p-5 and Kubica (DNF) from p-6. So, Renault touches the podium Fisi (2) with Heidfeld (3) in tow. DC (4) does his job and passes his teammate Webber (DNF) a few laps before Webber loses his gearbox. Rosberg (5) fends of Button (6) and Barrichello (7) who collectively pull Honda ahead of Super Aguri in the Constructors, after Sato (8) scores his second point of the season.
9. Kovi
10. Liuzzi
11. Ralf
12. Speed
13. Albers
14. Sutil
15. Davidson

Why?
Alonso and the McLaren are just that fast. Kimi has no good luck. Hamilton will be slightly less aggressive after his practice session shunt and Massa will be more aggressive after his poor qualifying. Trulli and Kubica are just in the wrong place at the right time. The rest just run their starting order save a few mistakes. Except for Webber, whom I picked randomly to DNF because at Monaco, one lap is 75 seconds, there are 57 gear changes a lap (equals a gear change every 1.32 seconds), you get down to 1st gear three times and if the bumps on the road don’t kill you the curbs do.

Monaco - Prediction

Not since Juan Manuel Fangio took victory in 1950's inaugural world championship Monaco Grand Prix has a driver won the race at his first attempt. However, Hamilton has already become the youngest championship leader in history - and the first man to stand on the podium in all of his first four races - so few will be surprised if he adds another record this weekend (Formula1.com).

I’m not saying he’s going to win but that is record worth noting.
Okay, I’m saying he’s going to win.*

1. Hamilton
2. Alonso
3. Kimi
4. Kubica
5. Trulli
6. Heidfeld
7. Fisi
8. DC
9. Kovi
10. Rosberg
11. Ralf
12. Webber
13. Sato
14. Wurz
15. Button
16. Speed
17. Rubeno
18. Davidson
19. Liuzzi
20. Sutil
21. Albers
22. Massa – takes pole but parks it in the armaco

*I am hedging my bet. I can no longer watch my predictions stop short of the finish line. So, for now on, my predictions will be more prediction than wish list.

Trick and Flaw

Most Formula 1 fans, even the tifosi, thought less of Michael and sorry for his teammates under Ferrari’s team orders during Michael’s reign. Try to explain Michael and Rubens 2002 to any sports fan, it can’t be done. Team sport or not, if the leader pulls over to allow his team mate to pass, at least one of them is not racing. I believe Alonso is as good a racer as Michael and expect that Alonso is a better man. I, also, hope Alonso wouldn’t want to tie the hands of any of his competition, teammate or otherwise, behind their back.

“McLaren has always insisted its drivers enjoy an equal footing at its team, Jordan reckons Alonso has missed a trick by not demanding undisputed number one status. Alonso’s flaw is he’s a double world champion but omitted a clause saying he was the No 1. He clearly felt Hamilton was not up to it. However while joining in with the praise of F1’s newest sensation; Jordan believes Alonso will still win a third straight world crown.” - Eddie Jordan from ITV.com
One of the many things I like about McLaren.
One of the many things I like about Alonso.
I don’t think anyone, including Ron Dennis and Lewis Hamilton, thought Hamilton was “up to,” this kind of start.

EJ, won't Alonso winning his third straight world title, as you believe, be that much sweeter without stacking the deck Schumi style.

Something Lost In Translation?

"What happened there showed that I am not scared of being aggressive and that I can be a fighter. I know I am up against some very tough opposition, so this proved that I can be tough too. And then, the way I drove after the start shows that after what happened in a similar situation in Malaysia, I am able to learn a little bit and move forward," Massa on Spain.
What? Not scared of being aggressive?
Dude, you turned. You had the line and you turned. What did you learn? What where your options?
Had the corner played out with the rolls reversed, would you have made the same mistake as Alonso? Would you have been as lucky as he? Could you have limped your car home to third?
We learned more about Alonso in that corner than we did about Massa.

Spain - post

"To do something well is so worthwhile that to die trying to do it better cannot be foolhardy. It would be a waste of life to do nothing with one's ability, for I feel that life is measured in achievement, not in years alone.” Bruce McLaren (1937 – 1970).

I would be proud to have my record (i.e. the youngest driver to have the lead in the drivers championship) beaten by such a talent as Lewis Hamilton and would smile that he did it in my car.

It is still a safe bet that Hamilton will make a rookie mistake but if he continues at his current pace it should have little impact on his title shot.

What about Kimi, as Hobbes would say, “If it weren’t for bad luck, he’d have no luck at all”? I am not a fair weather fan and my girlfriend told me how nice it will be to know I stuck with him when he wins a championship, but an otherwise great race left me flat, again.

About the only thing I got right was Kubica catching his stride.

Well done Sato and Super Aguri.

I hope Alonso’s demeanor in the post race interview had to do more with his own disappointment than him believing Massa was at fault for his off in turn one. Alonso was lucky to have not collected someone on his return to the track and luckier to have finished at all.

Spain - Prediction

Ferrari have donimated practice -
Testing times from Barcelona (Wednesday 2 May)
1. MASSA Ferrari 1m21.506s
2. WEBBER Red Bull 1m21.804s
3. TRULLI Toyota 1m22.309s
4. KOVALAINEN Renault 1m22.378s
5. ALONSO McLaren 1m22.579s
6. KUBICA BMW 1m22.653s
7. BUTTON HONDA 1m22.765s
8. DAVIDSON Super Aguri 1m23.027s
9. SPEED Toro Rosso 1m23.713s
10. ALBERS Spyker 1m24.870s
11. ROSBERG Williams no time
Testing times from Barcelona (Tuesday 1 May)
1. RAIKKONEN Ferrari 1m30.280s
2. WEBBER Red Bull 1m31.752s
3. KOVALAINEN Renault 1m32.149s
4. HEIDFELD BMW 1m32.175s
5. ROSBERG Williams 1m32.580s
6. BARRICHELLO Honda 1m32.911s
7. TRULLI Toyota 1m32.943s
8. SATO Super Aguri 1m33.238s
9. LIUZZI Toro Rosso 1m33.323s
10. SUTIL Spyker 1m35.488s
11. SPEED Toro Rosso 1m39.950s
12. ALONSO McLaren 2m04.818s
but I have to go with Alonso at home.

Honda tries to make an elephant fly.

Ferrari innovate movable aero.

And, then there’s McLaren, the McLaren I have missed, with the best looking and legal (for now) innovation in years. Will they run the new wing (http://www.formula1.com/insight/technical_analysis/race/2007/0/410.html) in Spain or wait for Monaco where it would be more beneficial?

I use to dream of a season like this, now I lay awake at night thinking about it.

1. Alonso – home GP and all.
2. Kimi
3. Massa
4. Heidfeld
5. Hamilton – I don’t want to see it, but a safe bet is that he makes a rookie mistake.
6. Kubica – hits his stride
7. Trulli – does what he does.
8. Webber
9. Wurz
10. Ralf
11. Fisi
12. DC
13. Button
14. Rubens
15. Rosberg
16. Kovi
17. does it matter?